World Breaks 1.5°C Global Warming Target
Last year, 2024, saw an average surface temperature of 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement. In addition, it was the hottest year on record for all continental regions, with each month recording higher global temperatures than the same month in the previous year.
Global Warming Warning
The data raises fears that climate change could be accelerating quicker than we first thought, suggesting that earth could be closer to irreversible environmental damage than previously anticipated.
2024 was the first calendar year that average temperatures exceeded the 2015 Paris Agreement targets, despite world leaders pledging to try and avoid this.
Paris Agreement
Even minute increases in global temperature, as little as a fraction of a degree, can have detrimental effects that lead to more extreme weather patterns and other adverse consequences.
The Paris Agreement was set up in 2015 with over 200 countries, who agreed to a series of measures to tackle climate change with the goal of preventing temperatures rising significantly above the highest temperatures seen in pre-industrial levels in the 19th century, when vast amounts of fossil fuels were being burnt.
The agreement put in place efforts to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C, and keep them below 2°C, in addition to working towards achieving net zero.
However, the 2024 data does not represent a breach of the Paris Agreement, as targets are measured long term over several decades.
Temperature Increase Causes
Looking at monthly temperature patterns can provide indicators to understand the causes of 2024 being the hottest year on record.
Firstly, low level clouds that reflect sunlight away from the earth’s surface have reduced, meaning more sunlight can pass through and warm the seas and the earth.
Additionally, we’ve seen record highs of greenhouse gas emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rising 0.8% in 2024 despite the rise of renewable energy sources.1
Lastly, a number of businesses across the world have weakened their climate targets, whether that be to follow in the footsteps of others, or because they no longer want to put in the work to tackle the climate crisis.
Risks of Exceeding Target
The largest risk of temperature increase is the destabilisation of the climate, bringing with it threats of natural disasters and further climate change. This includes heatwaves and rising water levels, which have already reached record levels in 2024.
This rise in temperature also threatens wildlife and habitats, including coral reefs – a 1.5°C temperature increase would mean 70-90% of coral reefs lost, with a 2°C increase resulting in 99% of coral reefs lost.
When we’ll cross the 2°C limit is unknown and hard to predict, but a long-term estimate sees us reaching this point in the early 2030s.
Outlook
The future climate is not predetermined. By significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we can mitigate the detrimental effects of global warming and secure a more stable future. Ways in which we can continue to fight climate change include transitioning towards renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and adopting sustainable land management practices. The potential benefits for both present and future generations are extensive and will shape the future of the climate.
