Are We More Likely to Get Power Cuts This Winter?
Each winter, the media raises concerns about a potential increase in power cuts or blackouts. We investigate whether these warnings are genuine or merely scaremongering.
Power Cut Causes
Firstly, it’s important to understand why power cuts occur. Most often, they are caused by unexpected shifts in electricity supply or demand – when the demand for electricity exceeds that being supplied.
However, in the UK, most power cuts are weather induced.
- Extreme weather, such as cold spells and large amounts of snow, can put strain on the entire energy network, not to mention damaging the very infrastructure that is needed to supply electricity to homes and businesses. Wind and gales can cause power lines to come into contact with other objects which leads to damage.
- Tree branches falling onto power lines can cause a short circuit, cutting power automatically.
Are Winters Getting Worse?
On average, winters aren’t getting colder but instead getting wetter and warmer due to climate change. Research shows that October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest winter half-year on record.1
Whilst there is a positive note in this – there is less likelihood of snow causing disruption, with the 2024 snowfall levels being below average compared to previous winter seasons – wet winters are associated with more storms, and higher winds, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere providing more fuel for storm systems.
What Does the Evidence Say?
The UK has seen a decline in widespread power cuts, with research suggesting that households experience 43% fewer outages compared to 2011.2 This positive trend is attributed to improvements in infrastructure and an increased supply buffer.
Tackling Power Cuts
Significant blackouts are rare in the UK, thanks to advanced technology and safeguards. For a power cut to occur, two significant power plants would need to fail. Improved energy storage capabilities developed in recent years ensure that excess operational power can be saved and utilised during peak demand, such as during cold weather.
Outlook
While technology and infrastructure are arguably at their best, the unpredictability of winter weather means that power cuts remain a possibility as we head into the season. There’s no definitive rule or guaranteed future regarding their occurrence. While utility companies work hard to maintain and reinforce their networks, to completely eliminate the risk is an ongoing challenge. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events attributed to climate change contribute to unpredictability.
2 Heatable
